Kamala Harris’ Betting Odds Plunge in 4 Swing States

Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds of winning her presidential bid have dropped in four key states over the past week, according to the betting website Polymarket.
As of Tuesday evening, Polymarket users favor former President Donald Trump to win the presidential election 65.1 percent to 34.8 percent. The platform allows users to place bets on the outcome of events. Shares are sold for up to $1, and those who pick the correct outcome are paid $1 per share they hold.
The gap on Tuesday is a slight jump for the former president, who last week was favored to win the election 60.3 percent to Harris’ 39.7 percent. But Trump’s chances have jumped significantly in a handful of swing states since October 17, including in Arizona, where Trump held a 68 percent chance of winning last week.
On Tuesday, Trump’s odds in Arizona jumped to 74 percent. His odds also jumped in North Carolina by 7 points (63 percent to 70 percent) and Georgia by 6 points (65 percent to 71 percent).
The state that saw the biggest change from last week was Nevada. While Trump and Harris were tied at 50 percent on October 17, as of Tuesday, Trump holds a 63 percent chance of winning in November.
Trump also jumped by a small margin in Pennsylvania (59 to 61 percent), Michigan (56 to 59 percent) and Wisconsin (56 to 57 percent). Harris is not favored to win in any battleground state as of Tuesday.
Polymarket’s betting odds are based on users’ predictions, not polling. Most nationwide surveys have found that the race between Harris and Trump is neck-and-neck. Several election models, however, have predicted that Trump has a higher chance of securing the necessary 270 electoral votes.
A report from The Wall Street Journal released last week found that Polymarket may have been “manipulated” by a small group of users to support Trump. According to the Journal’s research, four mysterious accounts spent around $30 million betting on Trump in recent weeks, which tipped the platform in the former president’s favor.
Economist Rajiv Sethi told the Journal that he believed Polymarket odds had been swayed, adding, “If I were trying to manipulate a market, this is exactly how I would do it.”
Crypto investor Adam Cochran also warned that the manipulation of Polymarket’s odds could be an attempt to make future false claims of a “stolen” election. Several critics have warned that Trump is laying the groundwork to challenge the election results in the case he loses, similar to his actions leading up to the 2020 election when he pushed false claims of voter fraud.
The former president told reporters on Monday that he has not “seen” any signs of election fraud this year but that he knows “the other side, and they are not good.”
Newsweek sent an email to Harris and Trump’s campaigns on Tuesday for comment on the Polymarket odds.